Gold prices soared to unprecedented levels in 2025, with several factors contributing to this remarkable surge. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran highlighted in the Economic Survey 2025-26 that tariff announcements from the US government, rising global policy uncertainty, and a weakening US dollar were major influences on this rally. According to the survey’s data, the price of gold witnessed a significant increase, soaring from $2,607 to $4,315 per ounce throughout the year, eventually reaching a striking $5,101.34 per ounce by January 26, 2026.
The Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) recorded similar trends, with gold prices on January 30, 2025, starting at Rs 81,028 and rocketing to Rs 1,75,231 by January 29, 2026, yielding an astonishing 116% return for investors in just one year. This dramatic climb saw prices rising by 65.16% from December 30, 2025, to January 30, 2026, illustrating a robust investment confidence despite minor corrections.
Despite the increase in gold prices over the past year, the MCX experienced a slight decrease of 4.87% by January 30, 2026, leading to the prices settling at Rs 1,67,095. This fluctuation was also mirrored in leading exchange-traded funds, such as Axis Gold ETF and Union Gold ETF, which each dropped by at least 10%.
The Economic Survey noted that the gold import bill climbed to about USD 59 billion in 2025, despite a declining volume caused by a 20% decrease in demand. This situation underscores the balance between higher gold prices and softer import volumes. Experts predict that while gold prices may continue to rise in 2026, the actual import volumes may stabilize at lower levels.
In a broader context, the Economic Survey observed significant shifts in global financial patterns, as many emerging markets increasingly prioritized gold holdings amid geopolitical tensions and changing interest rates. The report documented a substantial rise in the gold components of reserves, with gold values increasing from USD 78.2 billion to USD 117.5 billion between March 2025 and January 2026.
Additionally, the survey also pointed out a 125.3% year-on-year increase in loans against gold jewelry, a likely response to the escalating gold prices. It suggested that sustained demand for precious metals could continue to act as a safe haven in times of global uncertainty, providing a glimmer of hope for investors amid a blend of inflationary pressures and potential economic instability.
The Economic Survey forecasts indicate that unless lasting resolutions are found in various international trade conflicts, gold and silver prices could further ascend into the near future. Although some experts caution that the extraordinary rate of growth witnessed in 2025 may not be easily maintained, the persistent preference for gold as a stable investment suggests that investors may still find attractive opportunities in the gold market moving forward.