Francis Fukuyama returns to the discussion in Persuasion, addressing the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro, the leader of Venezuela. In his regular column, “Frankly Fukuyama,” he emphasizes the need to move beyond the debate surrounding the legality of the U.S. intervention and focus on the vital task of restoring democracy in Venezuela, while also considering how to facilitate the return of the eight million Venezuelans who have fled the country.
As the Trump administration embarks on efforts to change the regime, Fukuyama notes the irony of the situation, particularly given Trump’s previous criticisms of prolonged military engagements in the Middle East. Regime change is often seen as a necessary step since underlying domestic troubles typically contribute to poor international behavior. However, Fukuyama cautions that nation-building is notoriously complex and fraught with challenges—a truth backed by America’s rocky history in the region.
America’s experience with regime change has, in many instances, yielded disappointing results. Each past intervention in places like Afghanistan or Iraq encountered distinct challenges, primarily rooted in the social and political complexities of those nations. In contrast, Venezuela operates within a historical context of being a somewhat successful democracy prior to the disastrous leadership of Chávez and Maduro, which caused significant economic decline and a massive refugee crisis.
Fukuyama highlights the strength of Venezuela’s democratic movement, citing the organized and legitimate opposition leadership represented by figures like María Corina Machado and her replacement, Edmundo González, following a manipulated electoral process. In this light, a successful transition back to democracy may be feasible, bolstered by a committed expatriate community eager to contribute to the nation’s reconstruction.
Despite the removal of Maduro garnering immediate acclaim, Fukuyama warns that the road ahead could be riddled with conflicts as remnants of the regime fight for their survival. While Trump has expressed intentions to oversee Venezuela’s governance briefly, Fukuyama argues that history does not favor such unilateral approaches.
The critical examination of intervention legality leads Fukuyama to assert that discussions should pivot toward understanding the motives and outcomes of such actions. He reflects on the repeated mistakes made in previous interventions and the need for vigilant oversight that ensures a return to democracy rather than authoritarianism or extraction-based motives regarding Venezuelan resources.
Fukuyama contends that there remains hope for Venezuela’s future, emphasizing that restoring a democratic government capable of welcoming back its displaced citizens is achievable. While he expresses skepticism about Trump’s administration managing this complexity wisely, he remains optimistic that a path forward exists for a stable and free Venezuela.
Fukuyama, a senior fellow at Stanford University, continues to offer keen insights as the situation unfolds, urging a focus on constructive outcomes for the Venezuelan people.