The New Mexico State Aggies are set to face the FIU Panthers in a college basketball matchup on January 2, 2026, at 12 p.m. ET, with the game streaming on ESPN+. The Panthers are slight favorites, holding a 1-point advantage on the spread and a moneyline of -120, with the total points over/under positioned at 154.
The Aggies are enjoying a strong season under head coach Jason Hooten, boasting an 8-3 record, including a victory in their first Conference USA matchup. This game marks a significant test as it is New Mexico State’s first road game of the league season. The Aggies rank 146th in offensive efficiency according to KenPom, marking their best performance in recent years, though they still struggle with shooting consistency, hitting 50.3% of their two-point attempts and just 30.1% from beyond the arc. On the upside, the Aggies have excelled at securing offensive rebounds, achieving a notable 34% offensive board rate.
Jemel Jones serves as the focal point for New Mexico State’s offense, averaging 16.5 points per game and is complemented by Julius Mims, who also contributes significantly. However, for the Aggies to secure a win, contributions from the bench will be crucial, particularly from Elijah Elliott and Jayland Randall, who have shown the potential to score effectively in recent outings.
Defensively, New Mexico State has held opponents to 46% shooting from two-point range but has had issues with fouling, ranking 344th in the Free Throw Attempt to Field Goal Attempt metric. This inconsistency could be pivotal in their matchup with FIU.
FIU recently faced a tough loss against Liberty, pushing them to a 7-5 record for the season. Despite ranking lower in both offensive and defensive efficiency (177th and 200th respectively), the Panthers possess a wealth of scoring talent. Corey Stephenson leads the team with 18 points per game, alongside impressive showings from guards Julian Mackey, Zawdie Jackson, and Brit Harris.
The Panthers aim to control the game pace, leveraging their 23rd ranking in adjusted tempo, which can create opportunities through pressure but also presents vulnerabilities, allowing opponents to score 54% of their shots inside the arc. Maintaining control of the defensive backboards will be crucial, particularly given FIU’s struggles ranked at 359th in defensive rebounding rate.
In conclusion, the analysis tilts favorably toward the Panthers for this matchup. Their depth of offensive talent and recent performances suggest they could be on the brink of a breakout moment. With the talented freshman Eric Dibami stepping up as a scoring option, FIU may finally find its rhythm. My pick for the game is for FIU to win on the moneyline at -110, with the team poised for success in front of their home crowd.