COP30 Countdown: Is the Emissions Curve Really Turning Down?

COP30 Belém Preview: Emissions Curve Bends Downward, Yet Action Is Urgently Needed

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell recently highlighted encouraging advancements in the global fight against climate change, showcasing the world’s progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The latest update to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report indicates that global emissions are projected to drop by 12 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, thanks to new commitments from 113 countries.

In a recent communication to parties ahead of the forthcoming COP30 conference, Stiell stated, “Our update to the NDC Synthesis Report shows: The emissions curve is being bent downwards.” Released on November 10, 2025, this report aggregates data from nations that have submitted their NDCs, marking a pivotal moment in the global climate endeavor.

Prior to the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, projections suggested that global emissions could increase by 20 to 48 percent by 2035. However, the current analysis presents a more optimistic outlook, estimating a 12 percent reduction in total global greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use and forestry. Despite this positive shift, experts warn that more extensive reductions will be required to achieve the ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, emphasizing the urgency for ongoing climate action.

Stiell underscored the necessity of translating climate commitments into concrete actions, asserting, “Every fraction of a degree matters.” He urged world leaders to amplify their efforts as they convene in Belém for COP30, where vital discussions on enhancing financial support, advancing technology transfer, and executing climate strategies will take center stage.

Echoing the hopeful sentiment seen in past climate conferences, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called on countries to strengthen their climate targets, stressing that the future of the planet relies on timely and decisive measures. Leaders are encouraged to perceive climate financing as an investment in global sustainability rather than simply a charitable act, a perspective that has gained traction in previous events.

As nations unite in Belém, there is a growing sense of optimism that collaboration and innovation will yield significant advancements in the fight against climate change. The outcomes of COP30 hold the potential to establish more ambitious climate plans and strategies that are essential for ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come. This collective effort underscores a shared commitment to protecting the planet while addressing the pressing challenges posed by climate change.

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