The Villanova Wildcats are set to face off against the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, Indiana, with the game scheduled for tip-off at 12 p.m. ET on TNT. Currently, Villanova is slightly favored, with a spread of 1.5 points and a moneyline of -115, while the total for the game is set at 146.5 points.
As the Wildcats gear up for January 3, 2026, their recent performance has shown resilience. They managed to secure a gritty victory over DePaul, bringing their overall record to 11-2 and maintaining an undefeated 2-0 record in Big East play. Villanova’s strength lies in its defense, boasting a ranking of 35th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. The Wildcats excel at forcing turnovers, maintaining a 19% turnover rate, and limiting opponents to a 47% shooting percentage on two-point shots.
However, Villanova has faced challenges on the boards. They allow opponents a 30.8% offensive rebound rate while managing a 37% offensive rebound rate themselves. This discrepancy poses a concern for the Wildcats, especially when shots from beyond the arc are not falling. The Wildcats’ offensive style is heavily reliant on three-point shooting, taking 47% of their shot attempts from long range and converting 36% of those.
Key players such as freshman point guard Acaden Lewis have been instrumental for Villanova, with Lewis showcasing his playmaking abilities. Accompanying him are sharp shooters like Bryce Lindsay, who averages 16 points per game with a 44% success rate from three-point range, and Matt Hodge, another promising freshman shooting 38% from deep. The Wildcats’ success hinges on their ability to consistently connect from distance.
On the other hand, Butler is coming off a challenging loss to Creighton and currently sits with a 5-3 record without their starting point guard, Jalen Jackson, who is sidelined for the season. The Bulldogs will look to their standout players, Michael Ajayi and Finley Bizjack, to anchor their offense. Ajayi leads the team with impressive averages of 16.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, while Bizjack is enjoying a career year with 15.9 points per game.
Butler boasts a balanced offense, ranking 50th in offensive efficiency, and its ability to attack the boards is noteworthy, as they rank 14th nationally for offensive rebound rate at 39%. Ajayi’s prowess on the glass, alongside the contributions of bigs Yohan Traore and Drayton Jones, could pose significant challenges for Villanova.
As both teams clash, the pace of play will be critical. Villanova’s style is methodical, ranking 355th in adjusted tempo, in contrast to Butler’s quicker pace, which ranks 69th. Collectively, Villanova’s defensive strength makes them a formidable opponent, suggesting that the Wildcats may frustrate Butler’s young guard, Azavier Robinson.
Given the defensive edge and recent form, the Villanova moneyline at -115 is the recommended play on the road in Indianapolis. This matchup presents an intriguing showdown in the Big East, with both teams eager to enhance their standings as they vie for a better position leading into the NCAA Tournament.