The SMU Mustangs are set to face off against the California Golden Bears on Saturday, November 29, in Berkeley, California, with kickoff scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The Mustangs enter the game as heavy favorites, listed at 13.5 points on the spread and with a moneyline of -575, while the total points for the game are set at 53.
As analysis builds around the matchup, predictions lean towards Cal to cover the spread. Betting experts suggest that despite the current odds, the Bears present a strong opportunity to outperform expectations. Historical trends show that when under coach Justin Wilcox, Cal has often excelled against the spread, particularly under similar circumstances as large underdogs.
A key factor leading to the prediction of Cal covering the spread is their recent performance despite a blowout loss to Stanford, where they out-gained their opponent significantly. Conversely, the Mustangs come into the game with renewed confidence following a decisive victory over a depleted Louisville squad. Yet, it’s worth noting that SMU has struggled with consistency throughout the season, especially in their rushing attack, which could be a vulnerability against Cal’s defensive setup.
The Bears find themselves in a unique position following the departure of Wilcox, raising questions about the impact on the defense and overall team dynamics. A coaching change can often create a temporary boost in performance, commonly referred to as a “one-week coach bump.” With Nick Rolovich now at the helm, fans may see fresh offensive strategies that are not on film for SMU to prepare against.
The odds have shifted since opening, moving from an initial SMU -10.5, suggesting that some bettors are recognizing the potential for a more competitive game. This increasing line is seen as an overreaction to SMU’s recent performances and the Bears’ struggles, potentially providing a favorable edge for those wagering on Cal.
With these dynamics at play, many analysts are recommending Cal +13 or better as a solid betting option, considering their capacity to engage in a closely matched game. As fans look forward to what promises to be an intriguing contest, both teams will be eager for a victory, particularly SMU, which seeks to secure a spot in the ACC Championship.