As the holiday season approaches, the forecast for a white Christmas across the United States presents a mixed bag of expectations. Regions typically associated with festive snow, including the upper Midwest, mountain West, upstate New York, and northern New England, stand the best chance of waking up to at least one inch of snow on Christmas morning. This definition of a “white Christmas” places emphasis on snow cover rather than falling snow, meaning that unless at least one inch is present on the ground by morning, any snowfall later in the day won’t count.
Current weather predictions show a promising outlook for areas highlighted in the darkest teal, which indicate the highest likelihood of snow cover. Conversely, those in the gray areas may have to wait for next year’s holiday for their snowy dreams to be fulfilled. This year’s snow cover is anticipated to be less extensive than last year’s, which saw only 26% of the country blanketed in snow, according to NOAA reports.
Recent weather has created an unusual scenario with diminishing snow cover east of the Rockies. The mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor regions experienced their season’s first snow during the weekend of December 13-14, and the Midwest had a notably snowy start to winter. For instance, Springfield, Illinois recorded 18.9 inches, marking one of its snowiest starts to winter since 1893. In contrast, cities like Chicago have already seen snow accumulation comparable to their entire last season total.
Although some light snow is expected to continue in parts of the Northeast, particularly freshening a few snowpacks, it’s unlikely to benefit areas along the I-95 corridor from New York City southward. Moreover, warmer weather is predicted for much of the nation as Christmas approaches, particularly in the Midwest, where recent cold will give way to warmer conditions starting on Christmas Eve.
While these warmer trends may limit snowfall potential, particularly in the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., good news remains for snow enthusiasts, especially in the mountainous regions. The West, particularly areas like the Cascades, Sierra, and northern Rockies, is expected to see more mountain snow leading up to Christmas, offering a perfect backdrop for holiday skiers.
In the Northeast, recent snowfall enhances the chances of a white Christmas in regions such as the Hudson Valley and parts of southern New England. As weather shifts bring both unexpected warmth and localized winter weather, this holiday season reminds us of the variable nature of winter, encouraging those hoping for snow to remain optimistic.
The diverse weather patterns highlight the unique characteristics of this season, where the joy of a white Christmas remains alive in specific regions while others enjoy a milder holiday atmosphere.