A recent Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey highlights significant dynamics in the Texas political landscape as the 2026 elections approach. In the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate, Rep. James Talarico is currently leading with 47% of the vote, followed closely by Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has garnered 38%. Notably, 15% of voters remain undecided. Talarico’s support has notably surged among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while Crockett has strong backing from Black Democratic primary voters, receiving support from 80% in that demographic. Gender dynamics also play a role; Talarico leads among men with 52% compared to Crockett’s 30%, while among women, support is nearly equal, with Talarico at 44% and Crockett at 43%.
In the Republican Primary, incumbent Senator John Cornyn is in a highly competitive environment, with 27% support for Attorney General Ken Paxton and 26% for Cornyn. With Rep. Wesley Hunt gaining 16%, a runoff in May appears probable, as the Republican base remains divided, and none of the candidates seem likely to surpass the 50% mark.
Hypothetical matchups for the general election reveal some intriguing insights. In a direct contest between Cornyn and Talarico, Cornyn leads with 47% while Talarico follows closely behind at 44%, with 9% undecided. A similar tight race occurs between Talarico and Paxton, with each candidate receiving 46% support. Hunt fares better against Talarico, leading by 3%.
For the matchup between Cornyn and Crockett, Cornyn is again in a favorable position at 48% to Crockett’s 43%. Both candidates receive equal support (46%) in a hypothetical race against Paxton, while Crockett trails Hunt by 5%.
In the Governor’s race, incumbent Greg Abbott retains an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, securing 50% support compared to Hinojosa’s 42%, with 8% undecided. President Donald Trump holds a job approval rating of 48% among Texas voters, who remain divided on Governor Abbott’s performance, with a split approval rating of 47%.
The survey indicates that the economy is the top priority for Texas voters (28%), followed by concerns regarding democracy (17%), immigration (14%), healthcare (9%), and housing affordability (8%).
Conducted from January 10-12, 2026, the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey sampled 1,165 active registered voters in Texas, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%, ensuring a robust understanding of the electorate’s sentiments. This polling offers vital insights for candidates as they navigate the upcoming election cycle, highlighting shifting voter priorities and preferences that could greatly influence the results.