Democrat Christian Menefee, the former Harris County Attorney, has been projected to win the special election runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, as reported by CNN’s Decision Desk. This victory will fill a seat that has remained vacant since March, following the death of former Representative Sylvester Turner, and it is expected to further tighten Speaker Mike Johnson’s slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
In the runoff, Menefee is set to defeat fellow Democrat and former Houston city councilmember Amanda Edwards. The 18th Congressional District has experienced instability, remaining vacant for 13 out of the last 18 months due to consecutive deaths of elected representatives, including the recent passing of Turner, who only served a brief time in office after being elected.
Currently, the partisan balance in the House stands at 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats. With Menefee’s expected arrival, Speaker Johnson will only be able to afford losing one Republican vote on party-line measures.
Looking ahead, another election cycle is on the horizon, with the first round of the special election set to fill the seat left vacant by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene taking place in March, paired with a potential runoff in April. This timing overlaps with an upcoming special election in New Jersey following the vacancy left by Democrat Mikie Sherrill, who was elected governor.
The history of Texas’ 18th District has been tumultuous. The seat has been the center of political shifts, especially after the redistricting process led by Texas Governor Greg Abbott and state Republicans. Their efforts aimed to secure additional seats for the GOP in the 2026 elections, although a federal court deemed the new map likely unconstitutional. The U.S. Supreme Court later permitted this map to be used, creating significant changes to the 18th District, now leaning more Democratic.
As both Menefee and Edwards look ahead to the primary election for a full term in 2027, set for March 3, they maintain a commitment to their current campaigns. Menefee has emphasized the challenges of concurrently campaigning for the special election while preparing for the primary due to the confusing nature of the recent redistricting. Edwards concurred, noting that their messaging strategy aims to tackle one race at a time to alleviate voter confusion.
Additionally, they will face competition from seasoned incumbent Rep. Al Green, who plans to run in the newly configured 18th District, having been part of the political landscape since 2004 alongside Sheila Jackson Lee.
As Texas navigates this electoral landscape, the outcome of these races is poised to shape the Democratic presence in Congress and influence future legislative initiatives.