A recent analysis from the Climate Impact Company reveals significant changes in weather patterns that are expected to affect various regions, particularly Europe and the eastern United States, in the coming weeks. Stratospheric warming that initially started in Russia is now shifting westward, leading to intensifying colder temperatures across Western Europe. This colder regime is anticipated to extend to the eastern U.S. by late January.
Data from the ECM ENS indicates that this cold pattern is becoming more pronounced over the next 6-15 days. While models like GFS and ECM predict further cooling, the current trend shows a distinct movement of cold air, influenced by changes in the stratosphere. The warming that is shifting westward is projected to reach Quebec after it migrates across Europe and the North Atlantic.
The polar vortex remains strong in the Alaskan region, contributing to a colder stratospheric environment. However, the warming observed over Canada in December, which pushed cold air into the eastern U.S., is being echoed again with forecasts suggesting a particularly cold end to January due to similar atmospheric conditions. Should these trends continue into early February, colder temperatures across North America are likely, contrary to some models predicting a warm-up.
This weather phenomenon underscores the complex interplay between stratospheric activity and surface weather patterns. As winter progresses, residents and sectors vulnerable to extreme cold may need to prepare for the impacts of these predicted shifts. The ongoing analysis by the Climate Impact Company points to a need for vigilance as these changes could disrupt typical weather patterns significantly.