In a much-anticipated Big Ten clash, the No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes are set to host the No. 16 Illinois Fighting Illini today in Iowa City. While Illinois boasts impressive talent on paper, Iowa is favored due to their home advantage and coaching expertise.
Coach Ben McCollum’s reputation is a significant factor in today’s matchup. After guiding Drake to a remarkable 31-4 record last season, including both a regular-season and conference tournament championship, McCollum is proving his mettle in the tough landscape of the Big Ten. Iowa, despite a recent setback—a close 67-70 loss to Minnesota—remains a formidable host, particularly with a home record of 7-2 against the spread at Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Although Illinois is ranked 8th by KenPom, their performance has proven inconsistent. Last year’s high expectations met with disappointing results have left some doubts lingering regarding their reliability in competitive settings. Particularly concerning for the Illini is their 293rd ranking in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, which highlights the struggles they face when playing outside of familiar territory.
Today’s prediction leans towards Iowa, suggesting a close win and a total score lower than expected due to their tendency to play at a slower tempo. In fact, Iowa ranks 343rd in adjusted tempo, focusing on a robust defense that limits opponents to 60.8 points per game. The team’s ability to control the pace of the game against an Illinois side eager to exploit its offensive skills will be crucial.
In addition to the main prediction of Iowa winning by a point, a same-game parlay is highlighted: taking the Under at 143.5 points, expecting Andrej Stojakovic of Illinois to score under 13.5 points, while also betting on Cooper Koch to make more than 1.5 three-point shots.
With the odds reflecting Iowa’s slight edge, the dynamic between the two teams promises an exciting match-up as they both seek to establish control and momentum in a highly competitive conference. Fans can watch the action unfold at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, with tip-off scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX.