The geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus has become increasingly complex, particularly for Georgia, which finds itself in a precarious position as its current leadership fosters closer ties with Russia. This shift is marked by a stark contrast to the image Georgia once held in the West, particularly during the presidency of George W. Bush, when Tbilisi welcomed international leaders with great enthusiasm. Today, the mood has drastically changed, characterized by ongoing protests against the government and allegations of authoritarianism.
US Vice President JD Vance made headlines this week with a visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan, where he was warmly received by their leaders, signaling a thaw in relations in the region. However, the absence of any diplomatic engagement with Georgia, especially during such a critical time, highlights the nation’s growing isolation. Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgia’s prime minister, acknowledged the troubled context of Georgian-American relations, emphasizing the difficulties that have arisen under the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Political analysts, including Giga Bokeria of the Federalists opposition party, point out that Georgia’s distancing from the West has significant implications, particularly in its relationship with Europe and the United States. This distancing is seen as a dangerous gamble, leaving Georgia vulnerable to Russia’s influence in a region that has already experienced heightened tensions since Russia’s invasion in 2008.
Despite the Georgian government’s efforts to maintain a façade of pro-European sentiment, critics argue that it has consistently appeased Moscow while suppressing dissent at home. Episodes of violence against protesters and the imprisonment of government critics have raised concerns about the state of democracy in Georgia. George Melashvili, a political scholar, attributes the government’s survival tactics to a phenomenon he terms “immense gaslighting,” where the ruling party promotes distorted narratives about its relationships and intentions.
The backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine has provided further justification for Georgian Dream’s approach toward Russia, bolstering its propaganda. The party’s leadership is believed to be heavily influenced by its founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire with deep connections to Russia. This has fostered a perception that the Georgian government, while not openly embracing Russian interests, has effectively become a proponent of Kremlin-friendly policies.
Moreover, the lack of invitations to international events such as the World Economic Forum and the “Board of Peace” initiated by former President Donald Trump indicates Georgia’s diminishing relevance in regional geopolitics. Observers note that while Georgian authorities strive for recognition on the world stage, their reluctance to abandon power has led to their marginalization.
Despite these challenges, the Georgian populace continues to resist government-overreach and anti-Western sentiment, showing resilience in the face of adversity. As the stakes rise in the region, the ability of the Georgian government to navigate its relationships with both Western allies and Russia will be put to the test. The ongoing struggle of the Georgian people reinforces a hopeful narrative of determination in the fight for democratic principles and alignment with European values.