European Union nations are preparing for a pivotal vote next week concerning a significant trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur, according to officials from Denmark, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency. This agreement, the EU’s largest trade deal to date, was finalized last December after 25 years of negotiations and would involve Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
Despite the potential benefits, some member countries, particularly France, have voiced concerns about the impact that increased imports could have on their agricultural sectors. The European Commission, which brokered the deal, is aiming to secure approval from EU member states to enable Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to sign the agreement in Brazil on December 20.
A Danish presidency official confirmed the intention to conduct the vote next week, emphasizing that arrangements for the signing trip remain unchanged. However, the result of the vote is unpredictable and hinges on a qualified majority comprising 15 EU countries representing at least 65% of the EU population. Germany, Spain, and several Nordic countries are known supporters of the deal, while Poland has declared opposition. The positions of France and Italy remain ambiguous, which raises concerns that if they, along with one more country, oppose or abstain from voting, the agreement could be effectively blocked.
In an attempt to quell resistance to the deal, the EU executive has introduced a provision allowing the suspension of Mercosur’s preferential trade access for specific agricultural products, including beef, poultry, and sugar. Proponents of the agreement argue it is vital for the EU’s strategy to diversify trade relationships and gain access to crucial minerals, especially in light of the ongoing geopolitical challenges posed by U.S. tariffs and Chinese restrictions on chip and rare earth exports.
Some EU diplomats suggest that the pressure is mounting, with France reportedly seeking to postpone the vote until January. One diplomat stressed the urgency, stating that failing to sign the Mercosur deal in the coming days could effectively mark the end of it. The sentiment among supporters reflects a broader concern: if the EU cannot reach consensus on this significant agreement, it risks undermining its global influence and relevance in geopolitical matters.