NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released its spring outlook for East Texas, indicating a season that is likely to be warmer than normal, with equal chances for above or below normal precipitation. This outlook is significant as it highlights implications for severe weather conditions that may arise during this period.
The temperature forecast for the months of March through May suggests that much of the southern United States, including East Texas, will experience above-normal temperatures. Specifically, areas in the Southwest are identified as having probabilities exceeding 60% for soaring temperatures, while below-normal temperatures are expected in the western Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
In terms of precipitation, the outlook indicates contrasting trends. While the West is anticipated to see below-normal precipitation, regions like the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. East Texas, however, finds itself in a middle ground, with no clear indication of wet or dry conditions, as chances for both remain equal.
The Climate Prediction Center also highlights a notable transition in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, moving from La Niña to neutral conditions between February and April with a likelihood of 60%. This ENSO-neutral phase is expected to last into the summer months, with a forecasted 50-60% chance of developing into El Niño later in the year.
This transition has important implications for severe weather, particularly in terms of tornado activity. Historical data show that periods when La Niña changes to El Niño often result in more frequent severe weather events across states including Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The atmospheric conditions during this transition, such as favorable wind shear and the influx of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, are conducive to severe weather development, including tornadoes. Research has established a connection between ENSO phases and tornado outbreaks, further emphasizing the heightened risk this spring based on expected climate patterns.
As spring approaches, it’s crucial for residents and communities in East Texas to remain informed and prepared for potential weather changes, especially with the forecast predicting warmer temperatures and possible severe weather related to the climate transitions underway.