Costa Rica is set to hold elections on Sunday amid growing fears of rising violence and concerns about an authoritarian shift in a country that has long been viewed as a beacon of liberal democracy in Central America. The pivotal issue for many voters is crime, as drug trafficking and gang violence have surged in the nation, overshadowing its reputation for abundant wildlife and tourism.
In this election, citizens will select a new president and 57 congressional members for the next four years following a campaign dominated by the polarizing figure of outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves. Although Chaves cannot run for re-election due to constitutional restrictions, his chosen candidate, 37-year-old Laura Fernández, a former minister advocating tough security measures, is leading in the polls with around 40% approval—potentially positioning her for a first-round victory. The fragmented opposition, meanwhile, has not managed to rally behind a single candidate, with none surpassing 10%.
However, a significant portion of voters—approximately one third—remain undecided, indicating that the final outcome remains uncertain. Political analyst James Bosworth noted that the direction these undecided voters choose will be critical. Should Fernández secure a substantial majority or even a supermajority in congress, she could face less resistance in implementing her agenda. Conversely, if the opposition consolidates its support, she might find herself in a weaker position if a runoff is required.
The political landscape of Costa Rica was transformed in 2022 when Chaves, previously with the World Bank, captured public sentiment against corruption and political disillusionment, ultimately leading him to the presidency. Although Chaves has attempted to rejuvenate the economy, his abrasive approach has clashed with traditional political institutions and raised issues of governance, especially as his administration faced allegations of corruption and interference in electoral processes.
Under Chaves’s leadership, Costa Rica has witnessed a troubling increase in violence, with a homicide rate now at 16.7 per 100,000 people—the third highest in Central America. This rise in crime has prompted discussions about adopting the authoritarian security measures of nearby nations, particularly El Salvador. Fernández has suggested extreme measures, such as declaring a state of emergency in violence-affected areas, raising concerns among critics, including University of Costa Rica’s Eugenia Aguirre, who described such acts as potentially authoritarian.
As the elections approach, many are watching closely, with former electoral tribunal president Luis Antonio Sobrado asserting that these elections will play a crucial role in determining Costa Rica’s political trajectory. While some fear a deepening authoritarian trend, observers like Bosworth hold onto a more optimistic outlook, suggesting that Costa Rican institutions exhibit resilience and that the country will continue to uphold democratic values.
With the elections poised to set the tone for governance and security in Costa Rica, the opportunity for change could bring about significant reforms, reaffirming the nation’s commitment to democratic principles and addressing the pressing issue of safety for its citizens.