Carvana Co. (CVNA) is scheduled to unveil its fourth-quarter results for 2025 on February 18, after the market closes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects earnings per share (EPS) at $1.13, alongside revenues expected to reach $5.20 billion.
In recent days, the consensus estimate for Carvana’s earnings has seen a slight uptick, with a 2-cent increase. Should this projection hold true, it would indicate a remarkable 101.8% rise in earnings compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, the revenue forecast suggests a robust year-over-year growth of 46.7%. Carvana has a track record of outperforming earnings estimates, having beaten expectations in three of its last four quarters and missing once, which resulted in an impressive average earnings surprise of 57.12%.
In the third quarter of 2025, Carvana reported an adjusted EPS of $1.03, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.33 but showing improvement from 64 cents in the same quarter last year. The company achieved net sales of $5.65 billion, exceeding expectations by 11.6% and reflecting a significant 55% increase year over year.
The retail segment has continued its upward trend, with sales growing 44% in the third quarter, culminating in sales of 155,941 units—a new record for the company. Looking ahead, Carvana anticipates retailing approximately 150,000 units in the fourth quarter, marking a substantial increase from the 114,379 units sold in the same quarter of 2024.
Carvana is focused on enhancing operational efficiency through a series of technology, process, and product initiatives. In the last reported quarter, the company recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $637 million—significantly up from $208 million in the same period last year—boasting impressive margins of 11.3%. For the full year, Carvana expects to achieve an adjusted EBITDA between $2 billion to $2.2 billion, an increase from $1.38 billion the previous year.
The anticipated rise in unit sales and the overall growth in adjusted EBITDA should bolster Carvana’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, it should be noted that in the first nine months of 2025, the company’s capital expenditures increased to $96 million from $67 million during the same period in 2024. This investment in capacity expansion is pivotal for future growth, although it might have impacted cash flows in the upcoming report.
Analyzing the earnings outlook, the current model does not suggest an earnings beat for Carvana, primarily due to an unfavorable Earnings ESP of -1.56%, indicating that the most accurate earnings estimate is below the consensus. With a Zacks Rank of #3, Carvana holds a neutral position, which does not significantly enhance the likelihood of an earnings surprise. Nonetheless, the company remains well-positioned for future growth, driven by an uptick in sales and investment in capacity expansion that reflects a commitment to building for the future.