The California governor’s race is shaping up to be more dramatic than anticipated, as new polling reveals a surprising lead for Republican candidate Steve Hilton. According to a recent Emerson College Poll, Hilton currently holds 17% of the vote, placing him ahead of a diverse cohort of candidates. Following closely are Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell at 14.1% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican, with 13.5%.
Other candidates include Democrats Katie Porter (9.8%), billionaire Tom Steyer (8.8%), and former California Attorney General Xavier Bacerra (3.5%), among others. The data highlights a significant shift in California politics, a state that has not elected a Republican to statewide office in two decades, and where only around 25% of voters are registered Republicans. As the primary date approaches, observers are speculating how these numbers will evolve, especially given California’s top-two election system, which allows for the possibility of both Hilton and Bianco advancing to the November runoff.
Moreover, the poll indicates a deeper concern for Democrats, revealing that over half of California voters (53%-47%) have considered leaving the state due to the high cost of living. This sentiment may correlate with Governor Gavin Newsom’s declining job approval ratings, as he faces scrutiny in his last term as governor before his anticipated presidential run.
However, the electorate’s response to national politics introduces additional complexity. While Donald Trump’s low approval rating—only 32% of Californians support his presidency compared to 62% who disapprove—poses challenges for Republican candidates, it seems that simple opposition to Trump may not be sufficient to rally Democratic support. Notably, Sen. Adam Schiff, a prominent anti-Trump figure, has a lukewarm approval rating of 35%, indicating that many voters may be dissatisfied with political infighting.
Democratic leaders are not yet in a state of panic but remain watchful as Election Day approaches in less than 4½ months, with early mail-in voting starting the first week of May. They anticipate that undecided voters, currently 21%, will lean toward one of the Democratic front-runners as the election nears. The dynamics of this race will continue to unfold, reflective of broader concerns within California about governance and cost of living pressures.