U.S. gasoline prices jumped again on Tuesday, with the national average rising to $4.48 per gallon as global crude remained above $100 a barrel amid continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. AAA data show the national pump price climbed roughly $0.31 over the past week and is $1.32 higher than a year ago, underscoring the sharp cost squeeze on motorists.
Analysts blamed the spike on sustained pressure in oil markets after the start of the Iran war and the temporary closure of the strategic shipping lane. Brent crude was trading near $110 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $101 on Tuesday, keeping fuel-forward price expectations elevated. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the trend “doesn’t really show any signs of stopping anytime soon,” warning that retail prices could keep climbing as supply risks persist.
Industry forecasters are flagging how prolonged disruptions could push pumps to record highs. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, wrote that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, the national average could reach $5.00 per gallon. Retail gasoline prices have already risen roughly 50% since the outbreak of the Iran war, according to market commentary cited by analysts.
The pain at the pump is being compounded by uneven refining capacity and regional market frictions. JPMorgan analysts noted last week that while Southeast Asia faces the most direct supply threat from the Middle East conflict, the United States has emerged as the second-most-impacted region — a consequence of constrained refining capacity growth, fragmented regional fuel markets, and robust U.S. exports of gasoline and other refined products that tighten domestic supply.
States with high taxes and limited refining capacity continue to see the highest prices. California’s state average reached $6.11 per gallon, according to tracking data, while diesel has surged to record levels in parts of the Midwest. Some areas in Illinois and Michigan are approaching $6 per gallon for diesel as regional refinery outages and narrow supply margins push truck and industrial fuel costs higher.
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Markets are reacting to mixed signals from policymakers and shifting supply-escort initiatives. On Tuesday the U.S. said a ceasefire with Iran remained in place and said it was moving forward with plans to escort neutral vessels stuck near the Strait of Hormuz — actions that could help relieve some shipping bottlenecks but have so far done little to calm oil prices. For consumers, analysts say, the outlook remains one of elevated volatility: as long as crude holds above $100 and the strait stays constrained, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to trend higher.