The European Commission’s recent release of country risk classifications under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is revolutionizing the way European buyers choose their suppliers. As of May 22, 2025, this new tiered system categorizes countries into low, standard, and high-risk groups, significantly impacting the compliance requirements for exporters of commodities like coffee.
Low-risk countries benefit from simplified due diligence processes, which require basic information gathering without mandatory risk assessments. Only 1% of operations will be inspected, offering a notable advantage for these nations. In contrast, standard and high-risk countries will face full due diligence measures, including geolocation, legality verification, and mitigation efforts, with inspection rates set at 3% and 9%, respectively.
This classification hinges on the potential contribution of commodity production to deforestation, utilizing the latest data from the FAO’s Global Forest Resources Assessment. However, concerns have emerged regarding the classification criteria. Notably, only four countries—Belarus, Myanmar, North Korea, and Russia—have been designated as high risk, despite the fact that major deforestation hotspots, such as Brazil and Indonesia, are classified as standard risk. This is particularly striking as these countries have historically faced high deforestation rates but will encounter lighter compliance checks for exports to Europe.
In regions like Asia, low-risk coffee-producing nations such as Laos, India, and Vietnam account for over 28% of Europe’s green coffee imports. In Africa, countries like Rwanda, Kenya, and Burundi share a low-risk status, collectively holding a modest market share. Meanwhile, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica are recognized as low-risk in Oceania and Central America, respectively.
The EUDR’s influence extends beyond compliance; it is prompting changes in supplier selection, with countries rated as low risk becoming increasingly appealing to EU importers looking to minimize regulatory costs. This trend is particularly pronounced among exporters from standard and high-risk countries, who now face mounting pressure to demonstrate the deforestation-free status of their products.
As the EUDR shapes global trade practices, stakeholders across the supply chain are encouraged to embrace this regulatory shift. Building effective traceability systems, collaborating with technical partners, and advocating for inclusive implementation are critical steps to ensure compliance and sustain competitiveness in this evolving market.
By transforming regulatory challenges into avenues for sustainable growth, all parties involved can contribute to a more equitable future while navigating the complexities of the EUDR. This optimistic outlook underscores the potential for collaboration and innovation in addressing pressing environmental concerns.