A new analysis from the Cato Institute finds that legal immigration to the United States has fallen far more sharply under the Trump administration than illegal crossings — a reversal of the rhetoric that the White House has largely focused on border enforcement. The study, discussed on PBS NewsHour by Cato immigration director David Bier, concludes that roughly 132,000 fewer people are being admitted each month through legal pathways under current policies.
Bier said the single largest driver is the suspension of immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, a move that has effectively blocked many family reunifications, including spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens. In total, he said 92 countries now face de facto bans on legal immigration, accounting for about half of typical legal admissions to the United States. The administration has also sharply curtailed refugee admissions — with an exception for South Africans identified as white — and Bier said even that small category is being admitted at roughly 10 percent of prior rates under the Biden administration.
Asylum access has been virtually eliminated at ports of entry, the analysis found. Bier told PBS that asylum seekers who previously could present themselves at official entry points and request protection are now “turned away completely,” producing a near-total collapse in lawful asylum entries — a reduction he quantified as 99.9 percent over a matter of months. “The only way to get into the United States now is illegally,” he said of people seeking protection, a dramatic shift from earlier guidance that encouraged asylum-seekers to use ports of entry.
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The Trump administration has highlighted steep declines in Border Patrol arrests and encounters, pointing to statistics such as a fall from about 47,000 arrests at the end of the Biden presidency to roughly 8,600 in recent monthly counts. Bier and the PBS interviewer, Liz Landers, cautioned that most of the long-term drop in illegal crossings is a continuation of trends that began under President Biden: “Almost 90 percent of that reduction happened under President Biden,” Bier said, adding that Biden-era policies had coincided with rising legal immigration — a pattern now reversed as both legal and illegal admissions fall.
Beyond humanitarian implications, Bier’s analysis underscores potential economic costs. He said immigrants have reduced the federal deficit by an estimated $14.5 trillion over the past 30 years, with the vast majority of that fiscal benefit attributed to legal immigrants; illegal immigrants contributed about $1.7 trillion in the same period. Many of the people affected by current restrictions, Bier argued, are prime-age adults likely to enter the labor force and contribute through work and entrepreneurship — groups that could help alleviate long-term demographic and fiscal pressures.
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Bier framed the cumulative policy changes as an intentional shift toward a broad reduction in immigration. He pointed to statements from the president and hardline supporters calling for limits on “Third World” immigration and described public responses to the study that celebrated the sharp cuts. That, he said, represents a departure from Trump’s 2016 campaign posture of cracking down on illegal crossings while preserving legal channels — a distinction now blurred by travel suspensions, visa curbs and asylum caps that together have produced precipitous declines in lawful entries.
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