The opening day of the ATP Masters 1000 in Rome on May 6 shapes up as a fertile hunting ground for bettors and clay-court specialists, with three first‑round matches offering clear edges based on recent form and surface preference. Matteo Arnaldi, Sebastian Baez and Damir Dzumhur are the players tipped for value after contrasting runs into the Italian capital.
Arnaldi’s first‑round match against Jaume Munar is scheduled for 14:30 CEST. The Italian arrives on a five‑match winning streak after capturing the Challenger title in Cagliari last week, where he beat Hubert Hurkacz in the final in straight sets. Granted a Rome wildcard, Arnaldi also carries home‑court momentum despite an opening‑round exit to Roberto Bautista Agut in Rome last season. The head‑to‑head between Arnaldi and Munar stands at 2–3. Munar has dropped three of his last five matches and was beaten in straight sets by Casper Ruud in Madrid’s second round last week. Bookmakers list this as a 50–50 contest, but the preview identifies Arnaldi to be the value play, listing Arnaldi to win at odds of 1.67 (bet365).
Earlier on the same morning, at 11:00 CEST, Jenson Brooksby meets Sebastian Baez in a clash that pits Brooksby’s flat, American baseline game against Baez’s more traditional clay‑court craft. Brooksby has lost four of his last five matches and is 0‑2 on clay this season, including a straight‑sets loss to Emilio Nava in Madrid. Baez has also had a patchy run — four defeats in five and an opening‑round loss to Gaubas in Madrid — but remains the stronger clay‑court player on paper; last season in Rome he fell in the second round to Kopriva. With Baez favoured by bookmakers, the suggested angle is a games handicap rather than an outright pick: Baez -4.5 games at 1.91 (bet365) is highlighted as the best value, with the expectation that the Argentine will keep rallies long and control the match rhythm.
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Also at 11:00 CEST, Damir Dzumhur faces Adrian Mannarino in a match where recent trajectories diverge. Dzumhur has lost four of his last five and was forced to retire in his opening match in Cagliari last week against Nava, but bookmakers still make him the clear favourite against Mannarino. Mannarino arrives in Rome having lost six consecutive matches — including a three‑set defeat to de Jong in Cagliari — and has a poor historical record at the Foro Italico, making it through the opening round only once in 13 appearances. The preview labels Dzumhur to win in straight sets as the value bet at 1.91 (bet365), expecting the Bosnian to capitalise on Mannarino’s slump.
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These three picks underscore contrasting lines of reasoning: Arnaldi’s momentum and home crowd support, Baez’s clay pedigree versus Brooksby’s struggles on the surface, and Mannarino’s extended slide. All three matches are part of the Rome 1/64 finals on May 6, giving bettors early opportunities to stake positions in one of the clay season’s biggest events. Main photo credit: Jayne Kamin‑Oncea / Imagn Images.
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